Research Process
A structured workflow for football quantitative research.
The research process is designed to be rigorous without becoming opaque. The goal is to show how a football question becomes a model, how that model is tested, and how its limits are made clear.
Problem Framing
- Start from a football decision rather than a convenient dataset.
- Write down what the model is supposed to help with before any code is written.
Experiment Design
- Build a simple baseline first so later improvements mean something.
- Choose train and test windows that resemble future use, not just whatever gives the biggest sample.
- Check early for leakage, unstable samples, and data fields that look informative but would not be available in real use.
Diagnostics And Uncertainty
- Use measures that match the real task, especially when the output is a probability rather than a hard classification.
- Check calibration, subgroup behaviour, and where the model is most uncertain.
Iteration Discipline
- Keep track of rejected ideas, broken assumptions, and failed first passes.
- Do not present a model as better simply because it is more complex.